Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

Will mortgage rates hit 7% in near future? Here’s what the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors says about that

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by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2021 04:00:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.34 million in October, up 0.8% from September’s preliminary pace and down 5.8% from last October’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a larger YOY decline, reflecting this October’s lower business day count relative to last October’s.

Local realtor reports, as well as reports from national inventory trackers, suggest that the YOY decline in the inventory of existing homes for sale was slightly larger than was the case in September.

Finally, local realtor/MLS reports suggest the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 12.9% from last October.

CR Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release October existing home sales on Monday, November 22, 2021 at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 6.20 million SAAR. Take the over.

Note that the NAR reported median prices were up 23.6% Year-over-year (YoY) in May, 23.4% in June, 17.8% in July, 14.9% in August and 13.3% in September. And it appears the YoY growth slowed a little more in October.