by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2021 09:16:00 AM
Last month, in the Real Estate Newsletter, I wrote: The Coming Deceleration in House Price Growth
Here is an update to the graph:
Not only is Case-Shiller released with a lag (the release next week will be for September, whereas the NAR release yesterday was for October), but the 3-month average means the September release will include sales in July and August too.
Although median prices can be distorted by the mix, and repeat sales indexes (like Case-Shiller and the FHFA) are more accurate measures of house prices, the median price index might provide earlier hints on the direction of prices.
This graph – as of the NAR release in October 2020 (a year ago) – shows median prices started to take off, even though the most recent Case-Shiller report only showed a very modest pickup in prices.
The second graph – as of the NAR release yesterday – shows that Case-Shiller followed the median prices up, and that median prices are now falling.