by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2022 10:11:00 AM
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 591 thousand.
The previous three months were revised down.
estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 16.6 percent below the revised March rate of 709,000 and is 26.9 percent below the April 2021 estimate of 809,000
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.
New home sales are now below pre-pandemic levels.
The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.
The months of supply increased in April to 9.0 months from 6.9 months in March.
The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.
This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).
The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).
In April 2022 (red column), 53 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 74 thousand homes were sold in April.
The all-time high for April was 116 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for April was 30 thousand in 2011.
This was well below expectations, and sales in the three previous months were revised down sharply. I’ll have more later today.
